In response to the HMRC Property Transactions Data, which showed the seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of UK residential transactions in May 2024 is 91,290, 17% higher year-on-year than May 2023 and 2% higher than April 2024 month-on-month, Crispin Harris, Director at Jackson-Stops, comments:
“The swinging pendulum of transaction volumes seen in the years since the pandemic appears to be well and truly over by today’s results. A confident 2% rise in property deals month-month, following five consecutive monthly rises since January, signals a market rooted in stability with hopes of further growth as we move into summer. Whilst pricing remains sensitive, interest rates look compatible with modest capital gains over the coming months. This is reflected in the latest HM Land Registry figures noting a 1.1% annual lift in average house prices in the UK for April.
“Looking at Jackson-Stops’ national branch figures, new instructions in the months of April and May were up 34% year-on-year, with overall sales likewise seeing an uplift of 19%, suggesting the scales of supply and demand are allowing for a more active 2024 regardless of the politics that lay ahead. While it is somewhat unknown what impact a new Government will have, they will be keen to drive momentum, not deflate it, with most economic indicators painting a wider picture of stability, including falling inflation, steady mortgage rates and stable household debt.
“When speaking to agents on the ground, lifestyle changes remain the overwhelming reason to move house for most buyers. As supply increases at this time of year, demand will likely follow. Three and four-bedroom houses are some of the most active parts of the market, often a sweet spot for both downsizers and upsizers and reflected in Land Registry’s figures showing a 2.2% annual price uplift for semi-detached homes: the biggest of all house types. This is also a safe indictor that the mid- to higher-markets will see some stable pricing ahead. For Jackson-Stops, the North West is particularly thriving with prime deals happening quite rapidly in the £5m to £10m range.
“Whilst we won’t see the impact of the election on transaction figures for several months yet, it is likely an interest rate drop will bear more influence on sales volumes and consumer confidence than anything else.”
